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25% probability, yes. I gave a friend eggs from my Welsh Harlequin hen and Khaki drake to hatch. A couple years later I was at her house and up walked what looked just like a Welsh drake. He was the grandson of my ducks.

Yes, you’ve got it!

The harlequin allele is recessive so it should not show up in any of the crosses you mentioned. The first cross should give black or blue ducks. The second cross with the Ancona type drake should result in similar Ancona type ducklings. The blue drake would produce blue or black ducklings...